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They’re finally among us. They may not look like the Jetsons’ Rosie, but they are actually doing real jobs alongside humans―in homes, hospitals and on the battlefield

By Brad Stone

The Mars-bound spider-bot, seven inches tall, is NASA's next big thing.

March 24 issue ― Asimo, the Honda Motor Corp.’s cream-colored, humanoid robot, is a mechanical marvel. It has two legs, red lights for eyes, can climb stairs and wave. But as a true robot―a machine that thinks on its own―Asimo is a big, fat phony. During a recent demonstration in New York City, in a classic “Wizard of Oz” moment, Honda execs were backstage controlling Asimo with a laptop.

ASIMO ILLUSTRATES WHY frustration plagues observers of the robotics industry. Honda spent tens of millions to build the Asimo prototypes, but it won’t say anything more about their long-term potential than that one day such robots will be “a useful benefit to the human race.” In other words: tell your great-grandchild to get ready for a robot friend!

But hold on. Over the past few years, robots have infiltrated our ranks, robots that look nothing like the luminescent-eyed androids of science-fiction lore. They can’t emulate the human brain’s boundless flexibility, but they do take advantage of the latest innovations in computing power, sensors and artificial intelligences, and can do one or two things well. Today robots work in homes, hospitals and in dirty, dangerous environments like tunnels under New York City streets. Perhaps most significantly, they populate military bases around the world, where the next generation of unmanned aerial and ground vehicles are currently being battle-tested. In an industry that has risen and collapsed several times since the early ’80s, there is at last optimism that the Age of Robots might finally have arrived. “For the first time, lots of ordinary people are actually using robots,” says Rodney Brooks, chief of the MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab.

AT YOUR SERVICE
“Elvis” might very well be the king of the new age. It’s one of 100 HelpMate robotic couriers, made by the San Diego-based Pyxis, for the nation’s hospitals. It weighs 600 pounds, looks like a five-foot-tall cabinet on wheels and toils beneath the University of California, San Francisco, hospital, ferrying blood samples and medicine throughout the building. Once directed to a location, Elvis can chug down the hallway, wirelessly beckon the elevator and easily avoid other people and obstacles in its path.
Elvis is among an increasing number of robots being created to meet the needs of the health-care industry. Today there are five workers for every senior citizen. By 2020, the ratio will decrease to 3 to 1 (and in Japan, 2 to 1). Robotics firms are trying to stem the coming shortage of caregivers with products like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Wakamaru, due out early next year. It’s a three-foot-tall, yellow-faced robot with beady black eyes, designed to serve as a home caretaker for the elderly. It can talk, hug and send e-mail to the owner’s relatives if something seems wrong. But there will be a whopping $10,000 price tag.

Robots are invading messier territory, too. The torpedo-shaped Wisor is due to begin crawling through New York City’s leaky steam pipes to weld cracks later this year. Wisor finds, cleans and fixes the holes in the pipes, and has five cameras to help it navigate the dangerous twists and turns. It’s made by the same firm, Honeybee Robotics, that’s building tools to help the new Mars Rovers―which launch this spring―grind through Martian rock.

A look at FIRST March 15, 2003 ― Click the play button to see a video segment about the FIRST high school competition

FLYING ROBOTS
The U.S. military is also pushing the robotics envelope in the wake of its success with the remote-controlled Predator surveillance drone in Afghanistan. In its latest budget, the Army said it plans to spend $1.14 billion between 2004 and 2009 researching unmanned vehicles such as Boeing’s X- 45, a tailless, stealthy plane designed to attack enemy air defenses from 40,000 feet in the sky. In tests this month at Edwards Air Force Base in California, the aircraft took off, opened and closed its bay doors and landed―all by itself. “There were, of course, some very nervous people there watching it,” says Anthony Tether, head of the military’s research arm, DARPA.

All this skirts the really important question: when will robots bring us our beer? Five years ago Carnegie Mellon robotics guru Hans Moravec predicted that multifunction household robots would be here by 2003. “It always takes a little longer than you think, doesn’t it?” he now says. But there have been some successes― particularly in the realm of utility bots that mirror Elvis, the X- 45 and Wisor in their single-mindedness. The Roomba, a simple, disc-shaped $200 robot vacuum that moves in an ever-widening spiral, has sold four times more than all the home robots that preceded it, according to its maker, Boston- based iRobot. “No one had crossed the threshold, the magical line that says, ‘This works’,” says CEO Colin Angle, who thinks the device will unleash a flood of specialized home-helpers.
But the Japanese are still trying to shoot the moon with multipurpose robots that can be true companions. Sony, whose successful Aibo toy dog invigorated the home robotics field in 1999, is currently working on a humanoid entertainment robot, SDR-4X, that will sing, dance and allow hobbyists to customize its moves. Sony believes robotics will be bigger than the computer industry in 30 years, and may constitute the conglomerate’s greatest revenue source.
Is that just more robotics hype? Maybe. But it could be proof that the robots are finally among us to stay. Just squint your eyes, lower your expectations and soon you’ll be seeing them everywhere.

Robots. Although the concept is loaded with potential, the reality has been more frustrating. Still, incremental steps are being made. Today's robots may not be the androids of our imaginations, those almost humanlike beings whose thoughts emulate that of the human brain. But they are beginning to do real work--albeit pretty basic--in our homes, hospitals and out on the battlefield. How are robots being designed to help us? What does the future hold? NEWSWEEK's Brad Stone joined us on Friday, March 21 at noon EST for his take on the robotics industry as well as to discuss his new book, "Gearheads: The Turbulent Rise of Robotic Sports" (Simon and Schuster), an examination of the increasingly prominent world of robot competitions and the passionate artists, hobbyists and scientists who participate in them. Read the transcript below.

The Robots Are Coming

Robots. Although the concept is loaded with potential, the reality has been more frustrating. Still, incremental steps are being made. Today's robots may not be the androids of our imaginations, those almost humanlike beings whose thoughts emulate that of the human brain. But they are beginning to do real work--albeit pretty basic--in our homes, hospitals and out on the battlefield. How are robots being designed to help us? What does the future hold? NEWSWEEK's Brad Stone joined us on Friday, March 21 at noon EST for his take on the robotics industry as well as to discuss his new book, "Gearheads: The Turbulent Rise of Robotic Sports" (Simon and Schuster), an examination of the increasingly prominent world of robot competitions and the passionate artists, hobbyists and scientists who participate in them. Read the transcript below.

New: During Live Talks, you can chat with the other audience members in MSNBC's News Chat.

Brad Stone was named Newsweek Silicon Valley Correspondent in September 1998 and now writes for the Science & Technology and Business sections of the magazine. He's covered the rise, fall and subsequent rebirth of the high-tech economy, as well as general business stories and news from northern California.

Prior to that, Stone served as a general-assignment reporter for NEWSWEEK and covered a wide range of subjects. He wrote about Mark McGwire's history-making home-run chase during the summer of 1998, the jury deliberations in the Timothy McVeigh trial, and has profiled authors such as Kurt Vonnegut and Louise Erdrich. He is also a frequent contributor to Meredith Publishing's More magazine, penning recent profiles of actresses Annette Bening, Jamie Lee Curtis and Faye Dunaway, as well as authors Rebecca Wells and Ann Rule.

Brad graduated from Columbia University in 1993. He's originally from Cleveland, Ohio, and now lives in San Francisco with his wife, attorney Jennifer Granick.

Brad Stone: Hi, I'm Brad Stone and I'm here for the next hour to answer your questions about robots in general, and in particular, the wonderful wide world of robot competitions. I wrote about this topic in my new book, "Gearheads, the Turbulent Rise of Robotic Sports."

Tampa, FL: Why don't we read more about robots? Or see more of them in our daily lives?

Brad Stone: I am here to rectify this situation! But here's a great resource to keep up with the latest in the world of robotics: http://www.robots.net. I also think you'll be hearing much more about the topic in the years ahead. Many researchers think robotics is where the PC industry was in the early 1970s.

Orinda, CA: Why would Honda spend so much money developing a prototype for what is basically a sophisticated puppet? What's in it for them?

Brad Stone: The question is about Honda's cream-colored humanoid robot, Asimo. It is remote controlled. The first and foremost reason is marketing. The Japanese love robots, and their culture is infested with them, from toys to anime (the actual birthdate of cartoon AstroBoy is this month!) to the newest generation of home robots. Many of the major tech companies like Sony, Mitsubishi and Honda therefore use robots as mascots--just as an American company might use a character like the Pillsbury Dough Boy. And now companies like Honda are trying to extend those icons into their American advertising strategies.
That said, Honda's Asimo is a mechanical marvel, if not yet an illustration of artificial intelligence. Getting a bipedal robot to climb and descend stairs and wave is no mean feat and Asimo does it well. I assume they see this is the underlying technology for real humanoid robots that think by themselves, whenever they may come.

Sarasota, FL: How sophisticated are these new gadgets--like the robot vacuum--compared to what scientists are working on now? What can consumers look forward to?

Brad Stone: Actually the Roomba is not very sophisticated--and that is the point. The company that makes it, iRobot, was spun out of the MIT AI Lab, where most of the cutting-edge research is being done. But the scientists at the company realized that to really get robots into the home, you need to make them simple and cheap. So they took out a lot of the fancy robot technologies--voice recognition, complicated interfaces--and went with a simple disc-shaped vacuum that does one thing well: clean the floor. Since this approach has been so successful--selling more than 3 times the number of home robots that came before it--I think we will see more of these simple "stripped down" robots in the near future.

San Francisco, CA: How are robots being used in the current war in Iraq? Robots may save human lives, but is there a downside to not having a human being on board exercising his or her judgment?

Brad Stone: Ah, topical question. There are two unmanned aircraft deployed in Iraq: the Predator and Global Hawk. the Predator is controlled by a human on the ground and can fire missiles; the Global Hawk operates autonomously above 60,000 feet and is used for surveillance. I haven't heard much about either aircraft yet--perhaps because unmanned aircraft don't tend to do so well in dynamic wartime situations, where the air is being peppered with antiaircraft fire. Both were used to great acclaim in Afghanistan, but the threat level was lower there. Perhaps when Iraq's air defenses are quieted, we will see Predator drones scouring the country.

Cambridge, MA: When will robots be able to compete with and against humans in sports/activities such as soccer?

Brad Stone: Not for a long time! I have seen the soccer robots that perform in RoboCup--an annual event--and they are very cool and can play moderately well. But they are slow and deliberate and nowhere near human level. It is a huge challenge. But the organizers of RoboCup have a goal of matching a robot team against the best humans by 2050--so I guess if we're around then, we'll see whether it's even possible. But the human mind and body is the most complicated machine on the planet and will likely stay that way for a long time.

Folsom, CA: First off, great book, Brad. As a Battlebots competitor myself, but only having been involved in the sport for a couple of years, I found the history of our sport to be extremely fascinating. My questions would concern the future of this sport. Do you envision robotic combat achieving widespread media success in the near future? At a grass-roots level there is more interest in robotic combat now than ever before, and more local venues for teams to compete at. I would be interested in your thoughts as to the eventual destination of this grass-roots support. Do you think it's just a matter of time before successful robots and their teams are household names, or is this always going to be a "fringe" event? It's frustrating to know how much this sport has been hampered by the various legal proceedings. Do you think this stage is behind us, or will there always be lawsuits as long as there is money to argue about?

Brad Stone: Thank you very much. I think the sport will evolve out of the spotlight for awhile. Battlebots--and the many grass-roots competitions being held around the country--need to all join forces and set up a regular nationwide tour. That could revive the enthusiasm and excitement of the sport that was around in 2000 and 2001. Then the robots will start evolving again, as they were doing a few years ago, getting fiercer and more destructive and more interesting to watch. And when they evolve and get better and cooler, TV will get interested again. I also think new forms of the sport will continue to find their way onto cable TV. Programmers have seen there is great opportunity in mechanical pastimes.

Manchester, NH: What are the chances that one of these "smart" robots might one day turn against its makers? I know that sounds sci-fi, but is there really a possibility that something could malfunction--or that a robot could be programmed to hurt or kill?

Brad Stone: In reporting "Gearheads," I actually investigated two incidents where robots in the TV show "Robot Wars," produced by the BBC, ran amok and put members of the TV crew in the hospitals. But those weren't smart robots, just r/c machines misfiring. More to the point of your question, I don't think its likely in a sci-fi, Terminator way. But as to the last point, robots *can* be programmed to kill--and the coming generation of military robots will be developed to do just that. The Pentagon wants one third of its force to be robotic by 2015. Its unclear right now whether there will be ethical limitations that dictate whether a human must make the decision to fire at all times.

Chicago, IL: Do you think robots will ever take the place of surgeons?

Brad Stone: Right now there are thousands of surgical robots deployed around the world. But those simply allow one doctor with a certain medical expertise to conduct a procedure on a patient in another location. As for a smart robot actually replacing the doctor and performing an operation itself ... Probably not. And definitely not on me!

Columbus, Ohio: This robot race you talk about from L.A. to Las Vegas ... how far do you really think these robots will get and how long will it take them? Will they just call off the race if they get stuck after a couple hundred feet?

Brad Stone: This event is called the Grand Challenge and is being hosted by DARPA, the military's research arm. There's a $1 million prize for the autonomous vehicle that wins a race from L.A. to Vegas--being held in March '04. There is much dispute on whether anyone will finish. Some gearheads think it's eminently doable--many scientists think we're a ways off from robots that can navigate the many different terrains and do it within the 10-hour time limit. I will make a bold prediction. I think someone will do it in the next few years, and that team will win because they find an ingenious loophole in the rules allowing them to solve the problem in a way the creators of the contest did not imagine.

Haverhill, MA: What's next for robots? I am amazed we haven't been able to develop a better 'bot than those I've seen. Aren't there any that can perform more like human beings?

Brad Stone: We will see more robots that do one job well! A good example is Wisor, a cylindrical robot that crawls through the ConEd steam pipes beneath Manhattan welding shut cracks. The ConEd engineers get to stay in the comfy truck above the street and watch the video Wisor sends back. The robot will be operational later this year. Like the Roomba vacuum, it does one task that humans don't particularly care for very well. Jobs that are "dull, dangerous and dirty," as the saying goes. That is the short term future for robotics.

San Francisco, CA: What drives innovation in the field of robotics--defense industry, commercial applications or robot hobbyists like the people in "Gearheads"?

Brad Stone: Real innovation is being driven by scientists at research universities, who are exploring the frontier of what is possible. Can robots work with each other autonomously in groups? How do we get complex robotic vision systems to work? How can robots navigate complex and unpredictable terrain? Etc. Military contractors and other companies are developing that technology into robots that do one or two things very well. The gearheads are helping push the ideas of robotics into the mainstream. And there is always the chance that one of these home hobbyists could stumble onto a real invention in the garage. That is why the military has created the Grand Challenge--to mine that vast group of mechanically minded people.

Boston, MA: So what's the coolest robot you ever saw and what could it do?

Brad Stone: I will have to plug something called the Reality Robot here. It is an invention of a group of robot builders in Berkeley, Calif., who call themselves the "Stupid Fun Club." The Reality Robot is a tall ambling wheeled robot that you can have real conversations with. He (it?) talks about various inane topics such as beer and getting arrested by the police. What is fascinating about it is how other people react to it. When the SFC guys bring it out on the town, people either immediately warm to it and want to set it up on a date with their daughter, or pretty much run the other way....

Beverly Hills, CA: How much of the most cutting edge robot technology is being developed at NASA?

Brad Stone: NASA has always pushed the robotics envelope, particularly the Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena. This year, they are sending two Mars probes back to the red planet. They are developing lots of other exciting stuff too. In this week's Newsweek we have a big photo of the NASA spiderbot, a crawling robot that is meant to explore terrain where the rovers can't go. NASA started talking about it in December but I haven't heard yet when it will actually go on a mission.

Boston, MA: Outside of spy planes and bomb sweepers, what other military vehicles would be unmanned by 2015?

Brad Stone: As I said before, the goal is that 1/3 of the force be robotic by 2015. That includes ground vehicles as well. There are a number of different DARPA projects that are pursuing unmanned smart ground vehicles. The military hopes robots will be able to ferry supplies, conduct surveillance ahead of troops and even in some cases directly engage an enemy with onboard weaponry. There is also much research into unmanned underwater vehicles. One study I saw predicted that hundreds of unmanned subs would one day accompany each naval battle group.

Milan, Italy: Have robots been among us since the '50s?

Brad Stone: They have certainly been in our imagination for that long! In 1921 the Czech playwright Karel Capek coined the word "robot" in his play "Rossum's Universal Robots." And Isaac Asimov started his seminal robotics novels in the 50s. Many robot-themed movies, books, TV shows and children nightmares followed. As for the real thing, I think the real dawn of the industry was in the '70s and '80s, and the first useful robots worked in safe and predictable assembly lines, particularly in automobile plants.

Tarzana, CA: Have you heard about these sex machines? They are not so much robots as ornate robotic sex toys. it seems the world of porn is always on the cutting edge of technology (video, Internet, now ... robots?)

Brad Stone: This is a question I can't answer but I wanted to get it on the official transcript of this live chat! Good question!

San Mateo, CA: If a machine can win at chess, isn't it possible that a robot can be programmed to be smarter and stronger than a human being? Is it our ego that is holding us back from developing droids?

Brad Stone: Computers like Deep Blue that play chess are adept only in the two dimensional world of the game. The real world is much more complicated! Witness how tough it is for robots to play an adequate game of soccer ... or for that matter, for my Roomba vacuum to fully clean my floor. The real three-dimensional world is very complicated, and many of the things our complex human brains allow us to do--the physical act of moving a chess piece, for instance--are incredibly difficult for machines to duplicate. Deep Blue can win a game of chess, but it can't move a pawn.

Rock Island, IL: Will these robot competitions ever become mainstream or will they always be fringe events?

Brad Stone: I think they are already mainstream in some places. In the U.K., where the BBC films "Robot Wars" and its offspring "TechnoGames," hundreds of kids and their parents line up to watch the show. "BattleBots" events were incredibly well attended in San Francisco and Las Vegas. As for the other events, when the robots get better at soccer, or racing between L.A. and Vegas, or any of the other sports, I think people will turn out for the novelty on it. Everyone is interested in a spectacle and robot competitions are truly wonderful entertainment.

Topeka, KS: Brad: Which country is at the leading edge of robot technology--how far ahead of us, if at all, are the Japanese?
Thanks!

Brad Stone: I think both countries are driving innovation, but I'll venture that Japan currently has a slight edge. I think the vast consumer interest in robots in Japan gives their companies a huge incentive to push the technology envelope. A Honda Asimo or Sony Aibo would never have been developed here, because American companies would not sink the research dollars into such unprofitable ventures. The Japanese tech firms think those robots pay off in marketing benefits.

Milan, Italy: I am working on e-learning projects and am convinced that chatbots could definitely be good tutors in many fields, with a backup real professor when needed. What do you think of the use of a chatbot in e-learning?

Brad Stone: I'm not sure about this. My initial reaction is that nothing can beat a real human teacher!

Stanford, CA: Do you think Mr. Boodles could ever be a robot? If Mr. B fought a robot, who would win?

Brad Stone: Folks I am running out of time! I will answer this, last question, which is suspiciously familiar, since Mr. Boodles is the name of my cat. First of all I am positive he is not a robot, as he eats like a champ and also performs several other biological functions reliably. As for the latter part of the question, Mr. B. tends to disregard boring mechanized creatures, as evidenced by the fact that he ignores my Roomba vacuum. And yet he does pursue string and other wires when they are danced in front of him. Perhaps when robots become more unpredictable, he will fight them. And I am pretty sure he will kick their butts.

Brad Stone: That's it! Thanks for your queries. I had a great time answering your questions. For more info on the book, check out http://www.gearheadsthebook.com. Thanks.